According to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, Bangladesh is expected to increase its imports in 2025-26 as domestic rice prices are increasing.
Furthermore, imports are predicted at 1.2 million tonnes, which is double the previous estimate and from the 1.1 million tonnes imported in 2024-25.
The average retail price of coarse rice in July 2025 was $0.47 per kilogram, a 12% increase from the same period in the previous year. Not only this, in July, the average retail price of high-quality non-aromatic (fine) rice reached $0.65, a 13% increase.
Causes behind Rice Price Increase
The causes of the Rice price increase are higher paddy production and milling costs, price inflation, and an inefficient supply chain, as cited by the FAS. Like many other agricultural commodities, the rice supply chain involves various market actors, leading to higher costs for consumers.
Generally, when the domestic rice price rises, the government decreases the rice import tariff and permits the private sector to import rice. Bangladesh National Board of Revenue (NBR) has stated that private importers are now able to import rice with only a 2% advance income tax (AIT) instead of the 62.5% tariff.
Interestingly, the Rice harvested area is predicted at 11.7 million hectares, an increase from 11.4 million hectares in 2024-25, whereas the production is estimated at 37.5 million tonnes, an increase from 36.6 million tonnes produced previous season.
Wheat- the second most prevalent staple food
As per FAS, Wheat is considered as second most prevalent staple food after rice, with local production accounting for about 10% of total demand. Wheat harvested area in 2025-26 is reduced to 290,000 hectares from 300,000 hectares a year ago, and the estimated production of 1.05 million tonnes is reduced from the previous year’s production of 1.08 million tonnes. In addition, the FAS stated that the lack of improved varieties in Bangladesh has led to a gradual decline in both wheat enclosure and production over time. Wheat blast disease has significantly decreased yields, and farmers are earning higher profits by cultivating fruits and vegetables during the rabi season. Lastly, the FAS asserted that wheat is used to some extent as an alternative to rice in Bangladesh. Hence, the demand for wheat flour is likely to continue to increase, whereas rice prices stay high.