Corn and Rice production in Indonesia is forecast to decline in Marketing Year (MY) 2025-26. According to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, despite favourable climatic conditions corn production and rice production is expected to decline. In its report of crop forecast, the FAS noted that consecutive plantings of paddy increase the risk of higher pest and disease incidence, leading to rice harvest failure. Combined with land conversion to non-agricultural uses, paddy harvested area will be reduced for the country’s primary crop. Notably, The primary food crop of Indonesia is Rice, serving as the main staple for most Indonesians.
Both Corn and Rice Production is Forecast to Decline
Harvested area and rice production is forecast to decline to 11.25 million hectares and 52.6 million tonnes, respectively, in 2025-26 from 11.4 million hectares and 53.7 million tonnes the previous year. Based on Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS) reports and recent field observations, the FAS did not make any changes to the 2024-25 harvested area and production.
The government of Indonesia, however, has clearly stated that no questions and speculations related to Indonesia rice import will be entertained as the nations has ample supply from local production. The nation will not issue any authorization for Indonesian National Logistics Agency (BULOG) to import rice, other than specialty varieties, in 2025-26, according to the FAS. The statement by the government further ensured food security for all in the nation where rice is the staple food.
Corn Harvest Area Estimated to Decline
Corn harvest area is estimated to decline 4.2% to 3.45 million hectares from 3.5 million hectares in 2024-25. Notably, corn is the secondary crop of the nation. Stronger yield from the use of high-yielding hybrid corn seeds and GE seeds are not expected to offset the harvested area decline with corn production forecast to dip 3.2% to 13 million tonnes from 13.1 million year on year.
Indonesia does not grow wheat and hence imports in 2025-26 are forecast to increase to meet higher demand from the growing feed and poultry industries and greater consumer demand for wheat-based foods. Agricultural trends suggest that the Indonesian flour mill industry continues to expand for the nation of about 286 million people. It currently consists of 31 flour mills with a total installed capacity of 14.8 million tonnes, adding one flour mill and 400,000 tonnes of installed capacity in the past year.
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