The sugar industry in India is set for a strong rebound in the 2025-26 season, with production expected to rise by nearly 18%, easing supply concerns and supporting market stability. According to the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), India’s sugar production is projected to reach 30.95 million tonnes (mt) during the new sugar season that began on October 1, 2025.
ISMA’s sugar forecast attributes this surge to a favorable monsoon and improved crop conditions across major sugar-producing states. Maharashtra, the country’s leading sugar producer, is anticipated to witness the largest jump in output—reaching around 130 lakh tonnes—driven by increased acreage and healthier cane crops. Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh are also projected to record higher production levels, boosting the overall Indian sugar industry outlook.
Sugar Industry Forecast by ISMA Depicts Major Surge
After accounting for the diversion of approximately 34 lakh tonnes of sugar (in sucrose equivalent) for ethanol production, the net India sugar production for 2025-26 is estimated at 309.5 lakh tonnes. This robust sugar supply forecast is expected to comfortably meet the domestic consumption demand, pegged at around 285 lakh tonnes, ensuring a balanced market trend for the season.
The favorable 2025 sugar outlook could also reopen the export window. ISMA has urged the government to approve 2 million tonnes of sugar exports, emphasizing that early permissions would help maintain price stability and strengthen India’s presence in the global market. In addition, the industry body has requested the government to increase the Minimum Selling Price (MSP) of sugar and revise ethanol prices. These measures aim to ensure better profitability for sugar mills, timely payments to cane farmers, and sustain momentum in the biofuel program, further cementing the sugar industry’s dual role in both food and energy sectors. With strong crop conditions, policy support, and growing ethanol integration, the Indian sugar industry enters the 2025-26 season on a positive note—promising stability, growth, and global competitiveness.
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