India has surplus of 7 million tonnes (mt) in sugar production, which is a swing factor for the new sugar season, which began on October 1. However, as per the research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, speculated that better-than-expected output in Brazil, a sharp upturn in sugar production in India, and weaker crude prices have contributed to an increasingly bearish sentiment through Q3 2025.
High Sugar Production in India May Help it to Resume Exports Between January and February
Analysts at Uruguayan Commodities Media Monitoring group ECRUU’s sugar week said the amid the high sugar production in India, Indian government may also decide to resume its sugar exports between January and February, depending on the supply-demand situation.
Further, heavy rains in sugarcane fields in Solapur, Nashik, Ahilyanagar and Marathwada have hindered the production of sugar. Early estimates suggest around 100 lakh tonnes of sugarcane may have been damaged. However, industry experts remain optimistic. They project that about 1,200 lakh tonnes of cane will still be available for crushing, that is for production of sugar even after accounting for losses — significantly higher than last year’s 850 lakh tonnes. According to the Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Mills Association, the estimated sugar yield has been revised from 82 tonnes per hectare to 74 tonnes per hectare.
Export Estimates
According to experts at Green Pool Commodity, India’s surplus of 7 million tonnes sugar surplus in the 2025-26 season will be divided between meeting demand for ethanol and exports.” It sees 4.5 mt of the surplus from the gross production of 35.9 mt production being diverted for ethanol, while exports could be between 1 MT and 2 MT. Hence, surplus sugar production in 2025-26 will also be used for sugar exports. For the unversed, India rank in sugar production is 2nd and whereas holding the same position as a sugar exporter as well.
With the next crop in Brazil likely to be good, there is no reason for sugar prices to rise for a year or so, he said, adding raw sugar prices could remain stable around 16 US cents a pound. With the probability of sugar products price also to remain stable. A fresh dispute has erupted between sugar mills and the Maharashtra government after Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis warned of strict action against mills “cheating farmers in tonnage calculation.” Under the government’s plan, mills are required to contribute ₹10 per tonne of sugarcane to the Chief Minister’s Relief Fund and another ₹5 per tonne towards aid for farmers affected by floods.