Top Rice News: El Niño, Thai Exports And Low-Emission Rice

El Niño May Keep Global Rice Prices Higher Until Q1 2027. Here’s How?

Global rice prices are expected to remain high through the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, since El Niño conditions raise concerns over production in South and Southeast Asia. As per FAO projections, global rice production could reduce by 2.4% to 552.47 million tonnes in 2026–27. Moreover, India's rice output is forecast by the US Department of Agriculture to fall 4.6% year-on-year to 147 million tonnes, whereas Thailand is expected to witness lower production. These supply concerns have pushed global rice prices close to a two-year high, with export offers from significant suppliers rising since July. However, analysts warn that futures prices may be indicating a higher supply-risk premium than actual physical market conditions justify. Strong demand, especially from African markets, alongside rising freight and insurance costs, is adding pressure to prices. Market conditions will remain closely linked to harvest outcomes and weather developments.

Thai Rice Exports to ASEAN Rise Nearly 109% in January–September 2026

The Department of Foreign Trade stated that Thailand’s rice exports to ASEAN increased 109% year on year to about 1.25 million tonnes in January–September 2026. The bloc’s share of Thailand’s total rice exports climbed from 9.7% to 25.2%. Notably, Director-general Arada Fuangtong credited the Philippines and Malaysia, whose combined purchases rose by more than 750,000 tonnes. Both countries are building rice reserves amid weather and production risks. Moreover, Philippine paddy output dropped 12.3% in the third quarter, whereas Malaysia’s full-year harvest is forecast below its five-year average. The surge helped offset weaker shipments to Iraq and other Middle East markets, as Thai exporters faced geopolitical conflict, a stronger baht, price competition and erratic weather. The department has asked Manila to extend permits for over 36,000 tonnes delayed by October rains. It is also negotiating a deal with Singapore covering up to 100,000 tonnes over five years.

Vietnam Pushes Low-Emission Rice Brand Through Transparent Market Data

Vietnam’s one-million-hectare high-quality, low-emissions rice project in the Mekong Delta is showing early progress, according to Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương, deputy director of the Plant Production and Protection Department, in an interview with Vietnam News. Nearly 420,000 hectares have adopted all or some of the sustainable practices. Moreover, Pilot models show emissions cuts of two to four tonnes of carbon per hectare. The Vietnam Rice Industry Association has begun registering a Vietnamese Green Low-Emissions Rice brand. It has also certified many exporters.

However, there are some challenges. Several farmers hesitate to cut seed use from 130–160kg to about 75kg per hectare, or to adopt alternate wetting and drying and straw composting. Businesses observe that there is no dedicated market for green rice. Not only this, but the farm infrastructure needs upgrading. The ministry is submitting a revised decision to cover all specialised rice areas in the delta, building a transparent brand backed by market data