Why Philippines’ February Rice Imports Won’t Boost Vietnam Rice Prices?

By Megha Bajaj

Vietnam is currently the world's second-largest rice exporter, but despite achieving better rice export figures in 2025, it has faced challenges on the price front. Meanwhile, a recent report estimates that Vietnamese rice prices may remain stable in February this year. One reason cited for this is the Philippines' plan to import 300,000 metric tons of rice. The Philippines' planned rice imports come at a time when the country is attempting to more strictly manage rice imports to support domestic farmers, with a projected increase in domestic production in 2026.  The Philippines expects rice production to reach record levels in 2026, and the Philippine Department of Agriculture recently stated in a press release that the country's rice imports this year could be less than 4 million tons due to the anticipated record-high production.

Philippines Resumed its rice imports after a ban from Sept to Dec 2025

After a ban on rice imports from September to December 2025, the Philippines has resumed its imports. The rice shipment from Vietnam is expected to arrive in the Philippines by February, ensuring that the imported rice does not affect domestic prices at the start of the summer harvest. Notably, the Philippines had planned to import 500,000 tons of rice, half of which was to come from Vietnam, with the remaining volume sourced from Thailand, Myanmar, India, Cambodia, and Pakistan based on price competitiveness. Now, it is reported that the February rice imports by the Philippines are expected to be without origin-based restrictions, unlike in January, although the total volume will remain limited to approximately 300,000 metric tons. Regarding the ongoing negotiations between the Philippines and Vietnam or other countries for rice imports, Filipino buyers say that while the removal of origin-based restrictions is a positive step, the overall import limit still poses a constraint on the market. They believe buyers prefer the previous policy without a volume cap, as the limit restricts supply and reduces flexibility in sourcing. According to them, buyers are being encouraged to diversify their purchases, but 300,000 metric tons is still a relatively small volume.

Vietnam exported 3.2 million metric tons of rice to the Philippines in 2025

Looking at Vietnam's rice exports figures to the Philippines in 2025, according to Vietnam Customs data, Vietnam exported 3.2 million metric tons of rice to the Philippines in 2025, a 24% decrease compared to the previous year. Commenting on the rice shipments from Vietnam, Filipino buyers say that the February rice imports might improve market activity, but no significant price increase is expected. Some Filipino exporters believe that the February imports could boost the market, but the limited volume of rice imports will prevent a price surge. It is reported that buyers are still bidding at low levels, and some Vietnamese exporters are offering aggressively ahead of the winter/spring harvest.

Notably, Vietnam recently made a major announcement regarding rice exports. According to news citing the Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, Do Ha Nam, Vietnam will export 7 million tons of rice in 2026, 1 million tons less than in 2025, and this will gradually decrease to just 4 million tons by 2030. Explaining the reason behind this decision, Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, said that there are various difficulties and challenges regarding rice exports in 2026, and the large volume of global supply will significantly impact all exporters, including Vietnam. Nam, Chairman of Vietnam Food Association, stated that Vietnam's decision is not solely due to market conditions, but is also part of a strategic shift for the rice industry, in accordance with Decision 583 issued by the Prime Minister in May 2023. The Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association also mentioned that Vietnam is focusing on improving the quality and increasing the value of its rice exports. Therefore, it is anticipated that the export of rice to the Philippines will have little to no impact on Vietnamese rice prices in February.