The USDA has released its projection on Philippine rice imports for the year. As per the reports by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the country’s rice imports are projected to decline by 1.4 million metric tons (MT) which is followed by the government’s imposition of a rice import ban, keeping in the mind the food security concerns and to safeguard its farmers. Notably, Philippines has imposed a rice import ban aimed at ensuring food security across the nation and safeguard its local farmers.
USDA Projection Depict Decline in Rice Imports
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its December report on international trade of grains estimated that the Philippines will import only 3.5 million MT this year, down 29 percent from its revised forecast of 4.9 million MT in the prior report. The foreign agency attributed the sharp decline to the temporary suspension of rice imports, which started in September and came as a surprise for many in the global rice market.
President Marcos previously ordered a 60-day import ban to avert the decrease in farmgate prices, which have fallen to as low as ₱8 per kilo, driven by the influx of cheaper rice supply from importing nations. It was extended to the end of the year, which further increased tensions for Thai rice market. Philippines extended its rice import ban after prices continued to plunge, dropping to as low as ₱6 per kilo in some provinces, partly due to the added impact of recent adverse weather conditions.
Philippines to Share the Top Position with Vietnam
If rice trade projections by the USDA holds, the Philippines will remain the world’s largest importer of rice, but it will now share the position with Vietnam, which is also expected to import 3.5 million MT this year. Both, Vietnam and Philippines are expected to share the same rice imports figure as per the projection of the USDA.
As per the Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed that Philippine imports of rice have touched the figure of 3.34 million MT as of Dec. 4. Last year, the country imported a total of 4.81 million MT of rice. For the marketing year 2025 to 2026, the country is expected to retain the top spot with rice imports forecast at 5.5 million MT, while Vietnam will import only 4.1 million MT. For the unversed, The marketing year for rice starts in July and ends in June.
No Rice Policy for 2026
The government has not yet laid out the rice policy for 2026. But Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel has indicated that the country will “significantly lower import requirements” for the first quarter. Tiu Laurel previously said the import ban would be lifted only in January, with the suspension reimposed for the following three months in time for the harvest season.
In a separate report, the USDA said the country’s milled rice production will settle at 12.37 million MT, a marginal decline from the initial estimate of 12.40 million MT. Whereas, for unmilled rice production, the DA estimates output between 19.61 million and 19.89 million for the year. The estimate is higher than the 19.09 million MT of palay reported last year, but significantly lower than the initial forecast of surpassing the 2023 record of 20.06 million MT.
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