According to the latest industry data, Pakistan’s rice exports have declined sharply by 39% during the first 4 months of FY26. Adding more woes to the condition, rice export in Pakistan have fell sharply to $553 million which has further added pressure on the overall Pakistan export data, at a time when global commodity markets are in a state of instability and competition has intensified.
The setback comes after an extraordinary year when Pakistan rice exports in the first 4 months of FY25 hit a historic $907 million after rising from $675 million in 4MFY24 on the back of favourable global conditions and of course, in the absence of major competitors. More or less, this decline of 39% clearly depicts that Pakistan could only reach a record high in the absence of major competitors. As per industry officials the current decline coincides with, India rice exports ban. Notably, since India has lifted restrictions on its rice exports Pakistan’s share into the world market has significantly eroded. Long term trends show that last year’s peak was an exception and was only because of absence of global market competition. Between 4MFY17 and 4MFY22, exports largely moved in the $381 million–$592 million range, aside from stronger years such as 4MFY20 ($684 million). The present figure is closer to the levels recorded four to five years ago, including $546 million in 4MFY21 and $592 million in 4MFY22. Compared to the 4MFY24 base, the latest numbers still reflect an 18% decline.
Both Rice Exports Volume and Prices Under Pressure
For Pakistan it’s not only the rice exports volume but also the rice export prices, as the data suggest that prices have also come under pressure. Pakistan export data suggest that from mid-2024 onwards, export values remained in negative year-on-year territory, at times dropping below $400 per tonne during early 2025 before showing modest recovery. This significant drop in Pakistan’s rice exports volume suggest that Pakistan extraordinary years are possible only in the absence of major competitors like India.
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