India’s Rising Rice Exports Drive Pressure on Global Rice Prices
January 23, 2026
By Megha Bajaj
The global rice trade is currently a widely debated issue for several reasons. However, the most significant discussion revolves around the pressure on global rice prices. Countries such as India, Vietnam, and Thailand have substantial rice stocks, which are reportedly affecting global rice prices. It is suggested that changes in rice exports flows, coupled with shifts in the competitive landscape among major producing regions, have increased price pressure on the global rice market.
India’s position in rice exports has strengthened, says a report
As far as India is concerned, the country is currently the world's largest rice exporter and also the world's largest rice producer. India's rice surplus is a widely debated issue. Moreover, the country is continuously boosting its rice exports. Meanwhile, it has been observed that higher-cost rice exporters in the Western Hemisphere are facing increasing margin pressure, leading to greater coordination among industry bodies in the US. Interestingly, a recent report on rice exports states that India's position in rice exports has strengthened, along with its milled rice exports reaching approximately 173.95 lakh tons from January to December of the previous year, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.4% compared to 165.10 lakh tons during the same period in 2024.
India's rice exports have increased rice flow in global trade
Apparently, India's rice exports have increased the flow of rice in global trade. When it comes to the rice exports of India and Brazil, Brazil's milled rice exports sharply declined to approximately 1.85 lakh tons between January and December of the previous year (2025), a 20.3% decrease from 2.32 lakh tons the year before. Notably, this shrink in Brazilian exports reflects weaker international competitiveness as lower-priced Asian supplies gained ground, reducing Brazil's ability to maintain export volumes and increasing its sensitivity to global price movements. The United States, a major supplier to high-value and regulated markets, has also seen pressure on its export volumes. Looking at US rice export figures for 2025, US milled rice shipments between January and September of last year aggregated approximately 1.449 million tons, a 10.6% decrease from the 1.621 million tons shipped during the same period the previous year. Now, with declining milled rice supply figures from both the US and Brazil, concerns are rapidly emerging about the impact of these US export policies on global price formation and supply increases. These concerns were a key focus of recent discussions between the USA Rice and Brazilian rice industry associations in São Paulo, which also garnered significant media attention.
Brazil historically focused on domestic production
In the South American rice market, Brazil, the largest rice producer, has historically focused on domestic consumption, with exports playing a secondary role in balancing the market. However, the changing global landscape has begun to test that model. As global rice prices are currently under pressure, experts monitoring the world rice trade predict that price pressure will persist into 2026. They believe that the current imbalance in the global rice trade is unlikely to correct itself quickly. When it comes to India, they state that the country’s increasingly dominant position in rice exports will require Western producers and exporters to increase coordination on trade policy and market access issues and to adapt to prolonged price pressure.
India currently accounts for 40 per cent of the global rice trade
They suggest that pricing trends will largely be determined by India's export pace and policy stance for some time to come. It is quite noteworthy that India currently accounts for 40 per cent of the global rice trade. As the world's largest rice exporter, India continues to expand its rice production. According to the data, as of December 1, 2025, India has a record rice stock of 57.57 million metric tons. This is approximately 12% higher than the previous year. Furthermore, with its rice production reaching 150.18 million tons, India has recently surpassed China to become the world's largest rice producer.