Global rice prices have slipped to multi-year lows as supplies surged and uneven rice exports demand pushed down benchmark quotes across several origins. The latest FAO Rice price update (December 2025) shows the FAO index registering a fifth consecutive monthly decline, underscoring persistent pressure in the international rice market. This surge in rice exports, however, can also be primarily attributed to bumper crop and surplus production of rice in major rice producing countries such as India. Activity remains uneven, with exporters in South and Southeast Asia reporting contrasting price patterns across premium fragrant and lower-grade milled rice. Currency fluctuations, export controls and shifting trade flows continue to influence liquidity.

However, India rice prices are experiencing a distinct price trajectory, with the price of Basmati rice easing from their 2024 peaks as export competition intensified. India Pusa Basmati slipped from $1,315/metric tonne (t) in 2024 to roughly $906/t in 2025, while Pakistan Basmati declined from $935/t to $1,020/t. Despite the correction, values remain elevated relative to other fragrant origins, signalling that demand for premium long-grain aromatics is intact but more price-sensitive.

Non-basmati rice market, however, presents a more divided value with India 25% broken fell sharply from $422/t in 2024 to $362/t in 2025 as liquidity rose and government interventions softened. Parboiled 5% shipments held firmer at $382/t, supported by steady off-take from Africa and South Asian markets. The Indian 5% grade traded flat through 2025, marginally below the highs posted earlier, underscoring stable demand for parboiled cargoes even as milled grades weakened.

Thai rice export quotes remained broadly stable across Southeast Asia. Thai 5% traded in the $535550/t band through 2024-25, maintaining a competitive edge in the international rice market. Premium Thai Fragrant 100% consistently cleared above $1,000/t, consolidating Thailand’s position among high-value import markets. Thai A1 Super and Thai 25% hovered near $394395/t in 2025, offering a value proposition for buyers seeking predictability during periods of tight Indian policy.

This steep correction brings the price level for this benchmark down by over 29% year-over-year. The spot price was trading even lower, at $361.7/MT, in November 2025.

Vietnam rice market stayed resilient on the grounds of strong rice supply demand from nations like China and the Philippines. However, Philippines later imposed a rice import ban increasing tensions for Vietnam rice industry. Viet 5% stood at $385/t in 2025, while Viet Fragrant 5% fetched $471/t below Thai fragrant equivalents but high enough to preserve competitiveness. Glutinous segments were active as well, with Viet Glutinous 10% averaging around $554/t. Vietnam’s pricing gains reflect improved milling capacity and strong throughput on fragrant and specialty varieties.

As 2026 knocks on the door, global rice market seems to be structurally less aligned than in previous years. Premium aromatic grades are retreating from last year’s historic highs, mid-grade Asian rice retains a competitive foothold across major importing regions, and Western Hemisphere exporters are defending high price levels with reduced volatility. The coming quarters are likely to stay range-bound but volatile as weather patterns, government policies and import demand continue to dictate global rice prices and trade flows.