Economic Survey 2025-26: GDP Growth Outlook Ahead of Union Budget 2026

By Megha Bajaj

The Parliament's Budget Session began on January 28th. Now, all eyes are on the Union Budget 2026, and everyone is eagerly awaiting February 1st, 2026, when Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget 2026 in Parliament. Earlier on Thursday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the annual Economic Survey 2025-2026 in Parliament, which projects the country's real GDP growth to be between 6.8-7.2%.

Economic Survey 2025-2026- A road map for economic reforms

Notably, the annual economic document of the Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance is a crucial roadmap for economic reforms and usually sets the tone for the Union Budget 2026. The Economic Survey is released under the name of the Chief Economic Advisor. Currently, India's Chief Economic Advisor is V. Anantha Nageswaran. The budget will provide an outlook on GDP growth and shed light on the state of the Indian economy and its growth prospects in the coming financial year. The economic survey presented by the Finance Minister includes a separate chapter on artificial intelligence.

A separate chapter on the significance of Artificial Intelligence

This chapter is considered quite significant since AI is currently playing a crucial role in rapidly transforming the global economy. In addition, the economic survey discusses India's electronics sector. In fact, India's electronics sector has transformed from the seventh largest export category in FY22 to the third largest and fastest-growing export sector by FY25. According to the data, exports reached $22.2 billion in the first half of FY26. As per the economic survey, this sector is now poised to become India's second-largest export sector. According to the Economic Survey presented in Parliament, risks to economic growth remain balanced, supported by strong domestic factors and macroeconomic stability. The government estimates that, considering these factors, the Economic Survey projects real GDP growth to be between 6.8% and 7.2% in FY27. Additionally, the Economic Survey highlighted that the country's telecom sector has shown initial signs of import substitution.

Consumer Price Index in the Economic Survey 2025-26

 

Furthermore, exports have surged by 1.5% annually, whereas imports have registered an 18.5% annual decrease. The Economic Survey 2025-26 states that these trends are consistent with the objectives of the PLI scheme, which is designed to promote domestic production and expand exports. As per the government’s view, these trends signal the positive impact of the program on trade performance. Not only this, but the government also discussed the Consumer Price Index in the Economic Survey 2025-26. When it comes to the Consumer Price Index, the government stated that the CPI series will affect inflation data and that caution is needed in interpreting price dynamics. It is noteworthy that the Parliament's budget session, which began on January 28th, commenced with an address by President Droupadi Murmu. The budget session will continue until April 2, 2026. While addressing the session, President Murmu highlighted the government's achievements. Besides this,  she stressed the PM Street Vendor’s Atmanirbhar Nidhi scheme  (PM SVANidhi) and discussed India's strengthened economic position, stating that the country's economic situation has become considerably stronger. Moreover, she praised the launch of the Vande Bharat sleeper train. On Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the media ahead of the budget session, calling the Union Budget 2025 session significant. The PM stated that a quarter of the 21st century has passed, and this marks the beginning of the second quarter. The PM described the Union Budget 2026 as the first budget of the second quarter. During this time, PM Narendra Modi also mentioned the recently concluded FTA between the EU and India. Notably, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget for the ninth time on February 1st. Everyone is currently awaiting for this Union Budget 2026.