India cotton output 2025-26 (starting October) is projected at 312 to 335 lakh bales of 170 kg each, even though the area under cultivation has fallen and excess rainfall is a concern. Despite a decline in acreage, new-crop arrivals of raw cotton have picked up this week across key states, with estimated daily arrivals exceeding 1 lakh bales. However, prices of raw cotton are trending below the minimum support price (MSP) levels amid weak demand. The carry-forward stocks for the 2025-26 season are estimated at 60.59 lakh bales, up from 39.19 lakh bales a year ago — a build-up largely owing to higher imports.
Cotton production in major producing states
In major cotton-growing states:
- In Gujarat, the area under cotton fell to 20.82 lakh hectares, down about 12 per cent from 23.66 lakh ha a year earlier.
- In Maharashtra, cotton acreage dipped to 38.44 lakh hectares (from 40.81 lakh ha last year).
In the southern states, the area rose: in Telangana it increased to 18.51 lakh hectares (from 18.11 lakh ha) and in Karnataka it went up to 8.08 lakh ha (from 7.79 lakh ha). In Andhra Pradesh however the area declined slightly to 3.77 lakh ha (from 4.13 lakh ha).
Crop conditions and outlook
Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul S. Ganatra said crop conditions are better this year, though “a little damage has been seen due to recent rains in North India, but the weather has opened again and we are predicting a good crop in North India.”
Market and price dynamics
The combination of a projected higher output alongside strong carry-forward stocks and weak demand has put pressure on raw cotton prices. Arrivals are healthy, but with prices dipping below MSP, farmers and industry players remain cautious. In a related note, while the article focuses on cotton, it is worth mentioning that other crops such as rice production in key producing states are also being closely watched, as shifts in crop area and farmer preference can influence the area available for cotton.
What this means
A projected output of 312-335 lakh bales signals a relatively stable cotton harvest despite headwinds. However, the downward trend in area in some major states and the burden of carry-forward stocks imply that the industry must keep a close eye on price trends and demand. For farmers, seed and crop-management conditions appear improved, yet price pressures remain a concern.