September 6, 2025
As per the recent study by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), global rice supply surplus driven by India’s bumper paddy crop and bulging stockpile will keep international rice prices low in 2026. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) Senior Scientist Alisher Mirzabaev and The Rice Trader CEO Jeremy Zwinger in their collaborative study said that rice stocks in India have reached 37.9 million metric tons (MMT) by August, owing to record harvest and minimum support price (MSP) procurement. IRRI highlighted that India’s rice stocks exceeds its utilization by 30 MMT, and this oversupply situation tends to have massive global effects on the rice industry.
Demand of Indian rice has surged across the globe since the nation has lifted its last rice export ban, with a projection of exports of around 23.5 MMT in 2025. Ruling the rice export market, India alone shipped over 14.7 MMT until the end of August 2025, which surpassed Thailand’s 4.7 MMT and Vietnam’s 6 MMT in the same period. This surge in Rice export from India has dramatically softened global prices.
India Returns as a “leading Price-Setter”
India being the largest exporter of rice is now returning a leading price-setter in the global market. Though the study by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) also suggest that importing countries especially in Africa and Asia have benefitted from cheaper rice. However, India returning as a leading price-setter is not a good sign for rival rice exporters. The price drop has squeezed farmer margins in many Asian countries.
Further, incoming new harvest, high-level stocks, and strained warehousing capacities will further downward pressure on global rice prices. Since the rice supplies across the globe is abundant the prices are expected to stay low in 2026.